This has been my experience as well, seeing all of the typical wild swings of fate I have experienced at many face-to-face games over the years. It is absolute normal to experience small samples where highly improbable events take place. I recall watching a player roll three natural 18s on 3d6 in a row while playing Champions, which uses 3d6 for attack & skill resolution. Since the chance for just one 18 is 1 in 216, the odds of rolling 3 in a row is less than 1 in 8 million. (This was especially hilarious, since in Champions an 18 is the absolute worst roll, so his whiffs were EPIC!)
But given the millions of die rolls made by players over the course of more than 4 decades of roleplaying games, an outlier like this isn’t to be unexpected. In fact, not experiencing small sample sizes of outrageous luck (or unluck!) is more likely to be the outlier. If you have played games with random result generators like dice & haven’t experienced the slings of outrageous fortune, I question your recollection. 😉
While there is a degree of selection bias for any human, it is still worth wondering when it comes to dice rolled by RNG systems, which aren't actually random at all. Computers do very poorly with randomness, so RNG is usually determined by something outside of the player's control or awareness. Like the smallest unit in the clock or something. Technically rolling the dice by hand isn't random either because of physics, but it seems to be a closer fit that Solasta is at the moment.
If this RNG is implemented in a strange or unusual way, it can lead to a host of strange results that consistently produce outliers. In fact, having s system in place that "forces" a more even distribution over a certain amount of rolls can be a lot more representative of actually rolling dice at a table over several gaming sessions if the RNG is implemented strangely. And since 1.0 hit, it seems a lot of people have noticed something being off about the dice rolls.
So I have noticed the same thing and I think I may have also puzzled out why but its just a theory. I noticed I too was also getting a lot of low rolls but since they weren't resulting in party wipes I largely ignored it until late game where I noticed the discrepancy widened severely with my dice averaging below six and enemies between 18 and 20. This hurt because it meant I would usually receive a crit every third or fourth attack like clockwork.
I suspect instead of using any sort of real RNG, they have a system which tries to deliver mean and median results. So you hit on average and deliver average damage (check the results of your sneak attack once you have 5d6 and you will see the results are frequently 1-6 without much variation with a single number missing in the sequence for lack of the sixth die, or keep in mind the max damage of individuals and note how what they deal is almost always right in the middle) with rare instances of critical failures and successes. But depending upon the bonus' your characters have to attack, especially late game, in order to land your total roll plus bonii into an average result for that encounter (what is average will change from fight to fight depending upon TNs) it needs to severely nerf the roll. And when your AC is hovering around 26 the enemies need to just about crit in order to hit you with their +8 bonus. So there is always a finger on the scale trying to ensure combat is always a challenge without drifting into the extremes of too difficult or too easy -until the enemies require crits to hit you and then suddenly that is all they roll (adamantine armor saved my game from becoming a save scumming nightmare). Which them hitting reliably late game would make combat pretty serious but when they are crit'ing instead of merely hitting it makes every battle pretty tense. Which would be fine if I was unable to notice the finger on the scale.
Assuming I am even right about any of this, of course.
This does seem to be a plausible hypothesis, because it seem to follow the difficulty curve of the game. Can't remember ever having noticed anything off about the rolls for my characters or the enemies from Caer Lem to the Dark Castle. After that though, it seems to escalate.
Typos happen. More so on the phone.
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